2013 Outlook Part 3: Commodities

We see a 40% chance of a recession beginning in 2013, and if that happens, industrial commodities will be hit hard. In the event that the US is able to avoid a recession, we see largely flat performance for most commodities, excluding oil and gold.

We expect to see oil continue to trade in range, $85-105, unless a geopolitical event constrains supplies. If war n earnest breaks out in Israel or Iran we could see prices as high as double that. If there is relative peace, but a global recession breaks out, oil could fall below $75.

We expect gold to remain strong as an alternative investment and for the purposes of capital preservation, as it acts as an insurance policy against negative currency events.

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