Crude oil rose over 5% and Natural Gas was up as high as 12% on news that the winter in the United States is about to get colder, and talk that Saudi Arabia may curb oil production. It is likely that this surge is not over, and many economists feel it may develop into a long-term trend toward $60-plus per barrel, considering not only consumer demand during the summer, but also investor demand during the hurricane season.

The Federal Reserve began its policy meeting today and is expected to keep interest rates stable. Numerous statements have indicated that core inflation is at an acceptable level and a recession is not likely. Fed officials have recently stated that rates are “well-positioned” for any unexpected events in the near future.

The Census Bureau released a report today that 2.1 million homes were vacant at the end of 2006, representing 2.7% of all owned units. That is the highest vacancy rate in over 50 years.

2006 will not be remembered the year of the bust, as the median home price came in well above $150,000 for the first time ever.

Rental prices also had a record year, topping $700 per month on average across the United States for the first time ever in the fourth quarter.

The report is further evidence that the housing bubble has not yet reached its trough, as supply is clearly outstripping demand. It is highly likely that this kind of vacancy rate will lead to fewer housing starts and lower bottom lines for homebuilders nationwide, as a buyers market opens regionally.

Details of the report can be found at census.gov.

Tuesday, Proctor and Gamble (PG) is expected to report a  15% increase in profits.
Wednesday, Google (GOOG) is expected to post an 88% increase in quarterly revenues.

Thursday, Exxon Mobil (XOM)  is expected to report decreased earnings on lower oil prices and increased exploration costs.

Friday, Chevron (CVX) is also expected to post decreased earnings as the sector braces itself for volatile prices.

Also on Friday, the Labor Department will report its December nonfarm payrolls. The report is expected to be a key indicator of the effect the weakening housing market will have on the larger economy, since an excess decrease in payrolls is likely to be due to decreased home building.

Wednesday, the Fed will end its policy meeting, and most economists are expecting rates to remain unchanged at 5.25%. Though the economy seems to be growing at an acceptable rate, inflation pressures are likely to be a major discussion, and possibly cause for a rate increase.

Firday’s markets ended mixed, with heavy downward pressure over macroeconomic trends,
such as the housing market and the spectre of oil at $70/barrel. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1% while the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped by 0.1%.
During trading, 10-year US Treasury bond yields rose above 4.9% for the first time since mid-August. At the close of trading the 10-year bonds were at 98 1/32, with a yield of 4.879%, up from yesterday’s close at 4.867%.

Volatility in the bond market has led to uncertainty on the Street,  particularly financials, consumer goods and housing stocks, which are heavily affected by rate fluctuations.

The National Association of Realtors announced a sharp drop in existing home sales in December 2006. According to the report, existing home sales fell by over eight percent in 2006. Also, a number of homebuilders released sobering forecasts for 2007.

Heavy selling in the bond market led to the highest yields in five months. The 10-year Treasury finished the day at 98 3/32, with its yield at a lofty 4.867%.

Turbulence in the housing and bond markets seeped into the broader market, sending the Dow down 1%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipped by 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively.

The day’s winners were eBay and Nokia, up 8.2% and 4.5%, respectively. eBay posted sales growth of 29% while Nokia announced a 19% increase in profits.

In a word, no.

The OTCBB is an unregulated system by which broker/dealers and market makers can quote current prices for securities (ticker suffix .ob) which are not listed on one of the major exchanges.

The National Association of Securities Dealers oversees the OTCBB, but it is not a part of the Nasdaq exchange, as penny stock scams sometimes imply.

The OTCBB does require its listed companies to file updated financial reports with the SEC. Many people confuse this with SEC regulation: they figure that since they have to file with the SEC, then they must be regulated. But simply filing something with the SEC does not mean the SEC will do anything with it. Rather, it is the OTCBB itself that requires this of its companies. Any OTCBB traded company that fails to comply with this will be de-listed from the service, and will then likely trade on another exchange, such as the pink sheets.
Companies listed on the pink sheets (ticker suffix .pk) are not required to file current reports, so finding reliable information on them is very difficult.

While it is true that some of the best performing stocks are OTC and pink sheets, they are very risky, since it is so difficult to adequately research their financial health.

Shares of Yahoo stock jumped 7.57% on Wednesday to close at $29.00 on news that Panama, its new advertising filter, will be rolling out February 5.

The news is good for Y!, in that it will increase the number of ad-clicks per search (therefore increasing revenue), but it seems a bit early to be declaring victory for Yahoo.

Google, by all accounts is the market leader in search, reportedly claiming nearly 50% of all online searches (source: Comscore). While an increase in Yahoo’s bottom line would help, it’s not likely to change the dynamics of search for the next year. Indeed, it will likely take six to nine months for advertisers to get used to and adequately optimize their advertisements for the new system.
Over that time, the search wars are likely to heat up, as Microsoft increases its efforts and Wikipedia founders launch and develop Wikiseek.

Indeed, Panama will be good news for Yahoo shareholders. But 7% in one day is a bit much for number two. While it may rise again tomorrow due to momentum trading, I would expect it to lower before the end of the week, giving back about half of today’s gains.

Better-than-expected results from Texas Instruments helped boot techs for an end of day rally Tuesday, with investors showing signs of easing tensions regarding the sector’s recent performance.

United Technologies performed well, as did Boeing and Caterpillar, which both sold off yesterday, showing a strong support for Blue Chips.

A 3.4% drop for Boeing (BA) after a Wachovia downgrade spearheaded the Dow’s 0.70% drop to 12,477 on Monday.

Concerns over forthcoming earnings reports deflated tech stocks, which appear to be experiencing a natural pullback after outperforming all other sectors month-to-date. There are concerns, however, regarding chip maker AMD and software giant Microsoft, both of which are expected to report sub-par results. In AMD’s case, increased quality has led to increased competition from rival Intel. For Miscrosoft, the problems are internal, as the company has failed to deliver its forthcoming Vista operating system on numerous occasions.

Apple, which lost almost 2% on the day, has been slumping since hitting a 52-week high of 97.80 on January 10, the day after it reinvented the phone. Since that time the stock has lost over 11.25%, and closed at 86.79.

Three giants in tech will report earning this week, and here’s the rundown:

• Ebay (EBAY): Wednesday, Ebay will announce its earnings, which are expected to be up 40% from last year, with a 25% increase in sales.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Thursday, Microsoft is expected to disappoint investors with decreased profits, much the same way it has disappointed its users with the delayed release of its next-generation Windows product, Vista. The two are not unrelated, as Microsoft has deferred 1.5 billion in revenue for prepurchased OEM versions of the software until next quarterk, possibly creating a buying opportunity if Thursday’s results are poorer than anticipated.
• AMD (AMD): AMD will announce fourth quarter results Tuesday, revealing exactly how costly the chip wars have been to the Intel (INTC) rival. Intel reported last week that its sales have stabilized and increased steadily after a tumultuous few years of stiff competition from AMD. Further, according to Marketwatch, Intel and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) have reportedly reached an agreement, which would be a hit to AMD, Sun’s sole chip supplier.