Archive for the ‘Stock Market’ Category

Week Ends On Downtrend

Friday, October 24th, 2008

The Dow and S&P 500 closed the week at 8378 and 876, respectively, down 5% and 7% for the week. The Nasdaq fell 9% this week, an indicator that Google’s earnings surprise is not going to heat up the entire sector.

Analysts are saying that Emerging Markets are likely to get the worst of this recessoin, since their credit rating is poorest to begin with.

As always, we are stressing solid, dividend-paying companies with histories of growth through the recession: PG, JNJ, GPC. A small position in SDS or SKF or SRS will offset downside risk and, since these funds work on a double-inverse of their respective indices, they require less upfront investment to reap the benefit.

Blastoff: Dow Recovers over 10%

Tuesday, October 14th, 2008

The Dow gains 936 points for an 11.08% gain on Monday, the third-highest percentage gain in the history of the index.

On October 6, 1931, the index gained 13.51%

On October 30, 1929, the index gained 11.90%.

You can download the raw data here.

This market is highly volatile and too risky to predict. Traders must be nimble and willing to cut losses quickly or take the long-term (5+ year) view. Fortunes will be made and lost over the coming weeks, as the only thing we know for sure is that the volatility is here to stay.

Rollercoaster Ending to Down Week

Friday, October 10th, 2008

Since October 1, the Dow has lost 20.9% of its value, a dramatic loss for the U.S. Markets.

GM is trading at 1950 levels, as investors are unsure of its ability to raise enough capital to cover its operating costs over the next 18 months.

Foreign markets have been no safe haven, as ost have seen titanic losses over the past weeks.

This weekend’s meeting of the financial officials for the G7 countries may end in some short-term relief, but there is clearly no confidence in the leadership at this time. Investors are mostly finding Treasuries as safe-havens agains steep losses.

Keep in mind that there are buys out there. Strong companies that with historically strong dividend growth that deal in Consumer Staples should outperform the market, and a short-biased ETF can help reduce volatility, when used sparingly. A very small position (extremely small, as these are very volatile) in SKF (Proshares Ultrashort Financials) or SDS (Proshares Ultrashort S&P 500), coupled with strong-performing, dividend-paying stocks should do well in this market.

Nouriel Roubini Offering Free Access for Financial Crisis

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

We advise you to sign up for RGE Monitor, run by Nouriel Roubini.

We aren’t economists, here at StocksAndMutualFunds.com.

We are investors, and we’re web developers; but we’re not economists.

For real economists, you usually have to pay.

Usually.

One of the best economists in the world is Nouriel Roubini.

He is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, and he is highly sought after for his advice by think tanks and politicians.

He started talking about the U.S. national debt in the nineties. He started talking about the housing bubble in 2004. He started talking about the credit crunch in 2005.

He’s on top of things in a way that most of us, who work too many hours per week to adequately inform ourselves, can be.

His online service, RGE Monitor (short for Roubini Global Economic Monitor), is available at rgemonitor.com, and it contains a number of useful, if controversial, points of view about the current state of our economy.

Usually he offers his premium service for hundreds of dollars per year.

During this economic crisis, premium services at rgemonitor.com are free.

We are in no way affiliated with Nouriel Roubini or rgemonitor.com, and we only see this as a way to educate our readership in a way that we are not capable.

The legislation currently running through the U.S. Congress will need additional legislation to make it work for the long term. The Paulson Plan is a short-term solution, which will be ineffective come January 20, 2009, when we will have a new president and a new Congress.

It is of unequivocal importance that our citizens take the time to educate themselves about the oncoming economic crisis that this bill is prolonging (not avoiding, but prolonging).

The first step in educating yourself is getting acquainted with Nouriel Roubini’s ideas, particularly his HOME plan, which combines relief for lenders (banks, investors), as well as homeowners.

As web publishers, there are a lot of things we want our readership to do:
— Make good financial decisions about their futures and retirement
— Sign up for brokers we recommend
— Retire comfortably and early
— Protect their nest eggs so that they have something to pass on to the next generation

As citizens of the United States, however, we want our readership to educate themselves about the dangers of the credit markets that are looming beyond bad mortgages.

The crises we’re now experiencing are only symptoms of larger problems described by Mr. Roubini.

We do not make recommendations on stocks, or mutual funds. We just report what’s going on.

This is our first recommendation since our founding in early 2006:

Signup for rgemonitor.com now, while it’s free.

It is an unprecedented opportunity to educate yourself on the potential crises ahead, and an outline for how to protect yourself and your assets during these difficult times.

Bailout Passes Senate: Start Your Engines… or?

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

The Senate passed the Paulson Plan (modified, of course) by an overwhelming majority Wednesday night.

The revised bill contains an increase in the FDIC insured limit from $100,000 to $250,000, ensuring that both presidential candidates can take credit for it. It is, no doubt a long overdue provision, but it was not the idea of either of them.

The bill will move on to the House, where it failed earlier. With such strong Senate approval, the bill will likely pass, despite strong public opposition.

In any case, the markets are poised to rise on this news. The bailout is good news for Wall Street, even if only for a short time.

Long term investors and those nearing retirement will want to look at this as a bup in the road, a bump upward. It may be best to look at strength in the market as a selling opportunity, or a short opportunity.

With the late night and weekend announcements made over the past few months, it is becoming increasingly popular to time the market with short funds, like ProShares Ultrashort S&P 500 (SDS and UltraShort Financials (SKF).

When good news like the Senate passage happens, financials, and the market in general, are bound to react strongly, sending short-focused ETFs downward.

Whether the underlying problems in credit and the economy in general are solved, however, remains a question: what if $700 billion isn’t enough?

There’s a lot of upside to this bill’s passage, but there’s a lot of downside in its wake.

Not professional advice, just some food for thought.

What’s Going on With Chinese Stocks?

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

After a tumultuous week that saw two sharp dips in the Shanghai Index, Tuesday saw the market end in positive territory, after being down 7% earlier in the trading day.

What gives?

Investors in China and other emerging markets should be aware that these are high-risk investments, and therefore will experience higher volatility than investments in the more mature markets of Western Europe, North America, and Japan.
The recent dips experienced in Shanghai are the direct result of a change in China’s taxes on stock investments. The change was implemented to detract speculators from high-risk short-term investments. It is the first step in the maturity of China’s Finance Ministry, which is implementing long-term solutions to the rapid business development issues the country is facing.

Though it is likely that highly volatile days like the ones we have seen will happen again in China, the long-term trend should remain positive, as its development is just underway.

Dow 14,000?

Monday, April 30th, 2007

Jim Cramer was on the Chris Matthews Show this week and mentioned that he expects the Dow to rise an additional 10% within the next 6 months.

That would put the Dow at almost 14,500 by year’s end, which seems like a pipe dream to those of us who’ve been watching the US economy flounder in comparison to overseas investments.
Or is it?

Cramer’s assertation that it is the BRICs that are leading the world is right on target, and it’s important to point out that the Dow 30 is heavily weighted with companies that do a lot of business overseas. By some estimates, 40% of revenues from companies in the Dow come from Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.

For that reason alone, it’s reasonable to assume that the Dow will break away from the S&P 500 in performance this year, and in the years to come. Big hitters like Alcoa and Boeing can expect big numbers from developing economies that will need their products.

Dow 13,000

Wednesday, April 25th, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 13,000 and nearly breached 13,100 in late trading Wednesday.

Exxon Mobile (XOM) announced an incread of its quarterly dividend to $0.35 from $0.32, and Alcoa (AA) announced that it is exploring the sale of its packaging and consumer units.

Outside the Dow, the tech sector also showed strength, with shares of Amazon (AMZN) rising over 25% to $56.81 after announcing profits doubled on strong sales growth. Sun Microsystems (SUNW), however, fell short of analyst expectations and dropped over 11%.

The Commerce Department announced that demand for durable goods rose 3.4% in March, paving the way for the rally.

Recent weakness in the US Dollar has also helped many of the Dow components, which collectively gross 40% of their revenues from overseas.

Shanghaied Again?

Thursday, March 1st, 2007

The Shanghai Composite Index was down 2.91%. Tuesday’s 8.8% drop was followed by a slight recovery, but precipitated strong declines worldwide, and it appears that China is leading the way, bullish or bearish.

While the Chinese market has a long way to go before one can call it truly “overvalued,” skepticism and the specter of stricter taxes and regulations are warning signs of a rocky road ahead.

For now, it seems that world markets are likely to follow the lead of the Chinese stocks. Japan’s Nikkei ended Thursday down for its third straight day (-1.2%), and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.5%.

Worst Day on Stock Market Since WTC Attack

Tuesday, February 27th, 2007

U.S. stock markets notched their poorest performance since September 2001, right after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon.
The Dow fell 416.02, or 3.29%; the Nasdaq dropped 3.9%; the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5%. Earlier in the day the Dow had dropped over 500 points. All thirty stocks in the average were down for the day.
This fall comes on the heels of the worst day in ten years for China’s Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 8.8% yesterday.

The U.S. Equity selloff was greater than any other market, except for China, though the effect was global.
Weakness in Asia has spread global, as Japan’s Nikkei and Topix notched losses of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.

The United Kingdom’s FTSE and the German DAX were both down 2.3%, and the French CAC-40 dropped 2.6%.

It is possible that the bloodletting is not over, with U.S. equities, typically less volatile than emerging and developed global markets, being hit so hard. Such a selloff on Wall Street is likely to shake European and Asian markets during the coming trading sessions.

Bonds posted strong gains throughout the day, and, along with dividend-paying stocks that have been hit significantly, are expected to provide stability in the coming trading days.